Wingnut Wings Lancaster to be released by Border Model

[VMA131Marine]

On 9/28/2021 at 3:10 PM, cbk57 said:

 

I just don:t see these as selling for full retail for long.

 

How many do you think they are going to produce. It wouldn’t surprise me if the production run is only 1,000 kits. It’s very unlikely to be 5000. Even, a run of 1,000 kits would be $600,000 in sales, though only about 60% of that would go to Border. Let’s say the run is a very unlikely 5,000 kits. Total sales value would be $3,000,000. By way of comparison, my recollection is that the total retail value of Airfix plastic kit sales in a recent year is $4.5 million - $6 million. So, in that instance, you’d be talking about sales of a single kit being half to two-thirds of all plastic kit sales from Airfix. There aren’t going to be thousands of copies of this kit floating around looking for buyers.

[32scalelover]

Too rich for my blood

Edited September 30, 2021 by 32scalelover

[cbk57]

To continue VMA131Marines point, I wonder how many they have to sell to cover their costs to this point and will they try to break even on the 1st run.  Do you think they bought the tooling for 600,000?  Of course wholesale price is probably less than 600 per unit.  Would they be selling them for 400 per unit wholesale?  My guess is they need to issue at least 1500 globally to be worth while on the 1st run and then a second run in two to three years of 1500.  So 3000 kits over three years?  I would think they would need something in that range to cover all costs and make a bit of money.  Or dribble out 500 more in two or three years, another 500 a year or two after that and so on.  

 

I would love to be a fly on the wall in the bean counters office on this one.  I saw preorders with shipping from asia are running 700 or 800.  I don't mind spending on a kit but the lancaster is not worth that to me.  

[scvrobeson]

14 hours ago, Bomber Command nut said:

Large scale kit pricing has come along way since I paid £7 for the Tamiya 48th  Lancaster when it was released in 1977. 

 

With inflation, that would only be about 44 pounds. Pretty sure the last Tamiya re-release was a bit more than that.

 

 

 

Matt 

[Rick Griewski]

I am “worried” for them.  Seems like a lot of faith to plan to sell that many large models all around the world in a year time window.   

[VMA131Marine]

2 hours ago, scvrobeson said:

 

With inflation, that would only be about 44 pounds. Pretty sure the last Tamiya re-release was a bit more than that.

 

 

 

Matt 

Not in Japan it’s not. HLJ has the Tamiya 1/48 Lanc for $60 ish, or about £44

https://www.hlj.com/1-48-scale-avro-lancaster-b-mk-i-iii-tam61112

 

[VMA131Marine]

1 hour ago, Rick Griewski said:

I am “worried” for them.  Seems like a lot of faith to plan to sell that many large models all around the world in a year time window.   

They wouldn’t be the first. Here are some other examples:

Trumpeter 1:48 U-Boat - around $460

Trumpeter 1:200 Titanic - around $500 but $200-$300 more if you get the Pontos detail set and wood decks

Meng 1:12 Ford GT40 - around $360

Trumpeter has a range of 1/16 tank kits that sell for $300-$400

Tamiya 1/16 M1A2 Abrams (static model) - around $550; double that for the R/C version

 

I think Border Models will do just fine with this kit.

 

 

[Kagemusha]

9 hours ago, Gary Needham said:

Buy from Gary (Redcap 1960) with 100% confidence and at a really good price. delivery to the door too!

 

Gary

 

Absolutely agree.

[Pete Roberts]

5 hours ago, 32scalelover said:

Too rich for my blood

Ditto for me

[Robthepom]

19 hours ago, Kagemusha said:

 

You can also have it posted for $20, albeit surface mail, and receive 16% off https://doc.luckymodel.com/NL210928-1176/newsletter.htm working out at £388, and if you set your preferences at check out a certain way, it might sail (pun intended) through customs like my HKM B-17 did...

 

Looks like the UK list price is £599 according to Jumblies 

 

Just a quick question..... I have just registared with Lucky Models, with discount code and cheap shipping get price down to US$523.99  (AU$727.59)

 

Where has the Preorder price come from?, what if the release price is cheaper, do they discount the preorder price?

 

I think I'm going to buy, gulp

 

(that promo code ends today, I'm sure they will do another soon)

 

 

Edited September 30, 2021 by Robthepom

[cbk57]

5 hours ago, VMA131Marine said:

They wouldn’t be the first. Here are some other examples:

Trumpeter 1:48 U-Boat - around $460

Trumpeter 1:200 Titanic - around $500 but $200-$300 more if you get the Pontos detail set and wood decks

Meng 1:12 Ford GT40 - around $360

Trumpeter has a range of 1/16 tank kits that sell for $300-$400

Tamiya 1/16 M1A2 Abrams (static model) - around $550; double that for the R/C version

 

I think Border Models will do just fine with this kit.

 

 

The common denominator being those makers mentioned above except Tamiya are Chinese makers, there is another Chinese maker doing 1/16 tanks now and their stuff looks good as well.  I suspect these companies have a little knowledge of what is working and not so have some idea on the likelihood that they can cover their costs and make some money.  The question that I would love to know is how well it is working and what is not working.  For example how well did the 1/48 U-Boat do.  This also leaves out the 1/35 boats from Italeri which are likely all produced in China.  Big kits are a trend in the industry I don:t know that they all work out though either.

[Kagemusha]

2 hours ago, Robthepom said:

 

Just a quick question..... I have just registared with Lucky Models, with discount code and cheap shipping get price down to US$523.99  (AU$727.59)

 

Where has the Preorder price come from?, what if the release price is cheaper, do they discount the preorder price?

 

I think I'm going to buy, gulp

 

(that promo code ends today, I'm sure they will do another soon)

 

 

 

The pre-order price is, I'm guessing, the quoted retail price, I've pre-ordered from them before and there has been no change, they do promo codes every few months, but that might not be until November/December, and their consignment might have sold out by then, but then again might not and the discount could be 20% off...

[Paul2660]

I looked at LuckyModel yesterday, but did not see any Promo codes, (must have missed them).  What I saw was $717.18 total for a US order, which included $118.00 for shipping alone.  Not saying this is too much but would be the most expensive kit I have purchased.  Has anyone added it to the Lucky Pre Order list with a lower price?  

 

I also agree due to the market, and other issues currently the run of kits will be in the 1K to 2K range total world wide.  So it will be an issue of getting on someone's list for sure.  I am going to email Spruebrothers, Freetime and Scalehobbyist to see if they are already in the loop on this. 

 

I have always had good results with Lucky Model, ordered the Border BF-109 G6 1/35 from them most recently. 

 

Thanks

Paul 

 

Edited September 30, 2021 by Paul2660

[Dave Williams]

31 minutes ago, Paul2660 said:

I looked at LuckyModel yesterday, but did not see any Promo codes, (must have missed them).  What I saw was $717.18 total for a US order, which included $118.00 for shipping alone.  Not saying this is too much but would be the most expensive kit I have purchased.  Has anyone added it to the Lucky Pre Order list with a lower price?  

 

I also agree due to the market, and other issues currently the run of kits will be in the 1K to 2K range total world wide.  So it will be an issue of getting on someone's list for sure.  I am going to email Spruebrothers, Freetime and Scalehobbyist to see if they are already in the loop on this. 

 

I have always had good results with Lucky Model, ordered the Border BF-109 G6 1/35 from them most recently. 

 

Thanks

Paul 

 

When you go to the LuckyModel home page, click on the “what’s new” at the top center of the page.  That always takes you to the current promo.  In this case, it’s promo codes for 16% off orders or $200 or more, 12% off $70 or more, and surface shipping for $20.

[thierry laurent]

15 hours ago, VMA131Marine said:

How many do you think they are going to produce. It wouldn’t surprise me if the production run is only 1,000 kits. It’s very unlikely to be 5000. Even, a run of 1,000 kits would be $600,000 in sales, though only about 60% of that would go to Border. Let’s say the run is a very unlikely 5,000 kits. Total sales value would be $3,000,000. By way of comparison, my recollection is that the total retail value of Airfix plastic kit sales in a recent year is $4.5 million - $6 million. So, in that instance, you’d be talking about sales of a single kit being half to two-thirds of all plastic kit sales from Airfix. There aren’t going to be thousands of copies of this kit floating around looking for buyers.

You should not say "THIS" kit. Keep in mind there will be at least two different kits released  as there is also the Dambusters version that without any doubt will arrive in 2022. So, the cost/benefit calculation should integrate a minimum of two releases if not more.