Why we don’t get more LSP’s

[cbk57]

Hi All

 

I found a scale modeling podcast that I am enjoying.  One episode in particular is an interview with Scott of HobbyLinkJapan and he is kind enough to explain the proportions of the modeling market.  In the podcast he outlines likely numbers that are run of kits like the new Tamiya P-38 which he figures is in the 40,000 to 50,000 unit range.  Then he compares it to Bandai who are running 100,000 plus units of Gundam kits that sell 90% in the Japanese market.  

 

The interview is the last 45 minutes of the episode and I am attaching the. Link.  I hope you all enjoy and it puts in perspective the problems of 1/32 LSP’s. Large scale planes are not specifically mentioned but when you look at the unit numbers compared to other subjects it is a wonder that Tamiya and other companies are kitting subjects we are interested in at all.  The hobby is thriving but not in the way we want or expect.  We are an outlier in a hobby that is moving to sci fy and away from Military WWII aircraft.  I hope this helps some who wonder why we don’t get multiple new LSP releases all the time of our favorite subjects.  It looks like we are lucky to get any at all.

 

One thing I learned from this is that Bandai is the most important model company on the planet.  They are the ones setting the trends of where the market is going believe it or not.

 

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/scale-model-podcast/id1315327179https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/scale-model-podcast/id1315327179

Edited November 19, 2019 by cbk57

[nmayhew]

interesting, thank you.

 

On a slightly related note - and I realise this is from Wikipedia so who knows how correct it is - I found this out about Airfix in the 1970s with respect to how many kits etc...

 

"In the mid-1970s larger scales were introduced, including detailed ¹⁄₂₄-scale models of the Spitfire, Messerschmitt Bf 109, Hawker Hurricane and Harrier "jump-jet". The mid-1970s were a peak time for Airfix. Releasing as many as 17 new kits a year, Airfix commanded 75% of the UK market with 20 million kits per annum."

 

TWENTY MILLION KITS??!!

 

Holeeeeey crap that's a lot.

 

Mind you I was probably half a million of those in the late 1970s 

 

I cannot believe the hobby is anywhere near that size now (at least not in the UK)...

[ringleheim]

4 hours ago, cbk57 said:

Hi All

 

I found a scale modeling podcast that I am enjoying.  One episode in particular is an interview with Scott of HobbyLinkJapan and he is kind enough to explain the proportions of the modeling market.  In the podcast he outlines likely numbers that are run of kits like the new Tamiya P-38 which he figures is in the 40,000 to 50,000 unit range.  Then he compares it to Bandai who are running 100,000 plus units of Gundam kits that sell 90% in the Japanese market.  

 

The interview is the last 45 minutes of the episode and I am attaching the. Link.  I hope you all enjoy and it puts in perspective the problems of 1/32 LSP’s. Large scale planes are not specifically mentioned but when you look at the unit numbers compared to other subjects it is a wonder that Tamiya and other companies are kitting subjects we are interested in at all.  The hobby is thriving but not in the way we want or expect.  We are an outlier in a hobby that is moving to sci fy and away from Military WWII aircraft.  I hope this helps some who wonder why we don’t get multiple new LSP releases all the time of our favorite subjects.  It looks like we are lucky to get any at all.

 

One thing I learned from this is that Bandai is the most important model company on the planet.  They are the ones setting the trends of where the market is going believe it or not.

 

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/scale-model-podcast/id1315327179https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/scale-model-podcast/id1315327179

Thanks for posting this.

 

When I have time later I will check out this podcast carefully, as well as eventually check out most of the others as well.

 

I'll come back and comment once I've listened.

[1to1scale]

7 hours ago, nmayhew said:

interesting, thank you.

 

On a slightly related note - and I realise this is from Wikipedia so who knows how correct it is - I found this out about Airfix in the 1970s with respect to how many kits etc...

 

"In the mid-1970s larger scales were introduced, including detailed ¹⁄₂₄-scale models of the Spitfire, Messerschmitt Bf 109, Hawker Hurricane and Harrier "jump-jet". The mid-1970s were a peak time for Airfix. Releasing as many as 17 new kits a year, Airfix commanded 75% of the UK market with 20 million kits per annum."

 

TWENTY MILLION KITS??!!

 

Holeeeeey crap that's a lot.

 

Mind you I was probably half a million of those in the late 1970s 

 

I cannot believe the hobby is anywhere near that size now (at least not in the UK)...

not only in UK, but i remember buying Airfix kits at the drugstore with my allowance money in the mid 70’s, and that’s in a little industrial town in Michigan.

[Radub]

12 hours ago, nmayhew said:

interesting, thank you.

 

On a slightly related note - and I realise this is from Wikipedia so who knows how correct it is - I found this out about Airfix in the 1970s with respect to how many kits etc...

 

"In the mid-1970s larger scales were introduced, including detailed ¹⁄₂₄-scale models of the Spitfire, Messerschmitt Bf 109, Hawker Hurricane and Harrier "jump-jet". The mid-1970s were a peak time for Airfix. Releasing as many as 17 new kits a year, Airfix commanded 75% of the UK market with 20 million kits per annum."

 

TWENTY MILLION KITS??!!

 

Holeeeeey crap that's a lot.

 

Mind you I was probably half a million of those in the late 1970s 

 

I cannot believe the hobby is anywhere near that size now (at least not in the UK)...

 

For me, the more amazing thing is "17 new kits a year". Designing kits, especially in the pre-CAD era of the seventies, was some task. 

LSPs are still being planned and will continue to be released. The difference from "past times" is that models of today are more complex and made to higher standards, which take longer to produce. From idea to shelf a LSP model may take up to 5 years. Trust me, there are models in the pipeline. 

it is true that BanDai sells a lot of scifi stuff, but they are not stealing the "regular model" market. The two markets do not overlap. Think "vegans vs meat-eaters" :-) 

Radu

[Kagemusha]

1 hour ago, Radub said:

Trust me, there are models in the pipeline. 

 

Radu

 

I hope one of them is an early Harrier/Sea Harrier. 

[nmayhew]

3 hours ago, Kagemusha said:

 

I hope one of them is an early Harrier/Sea Harrier. 

 

I know little (nothing!) of Harriers, but think they are cool; is the Revell 1/32 kit dog do-do?

[misha71]

For me new models are coming faster then i build them. 

32 scale always will stay more luxury so less models is predictable. 

 

 

[Dave Williams]

3 hours ago, nmayhew said:

 

I know little (nothing!) of Harriers, but think they are cool; is the Revell 1/32 kit dog do-do?

It’s a old kit, with associated lack of details and raised panel lines and rivets.

[Tony T]

8 hours ago, Kagemusha said:

 

I hope one of them is an early Harrier/Sea Harrier. 

 

Oh yes, a SHAR please. And Kitty Hawk's promised 'Streak, 'Flash and Jaguar.

For me, I'm not worried too much about WW2 subjects as they'll never fade out. Would be like banning whisky!

The future is in short run kits and de luxe aftermarket...

 

But where are the Cold War jets? And where, for example, are the HGW type etch buckle and fabric strap sets for the MB Mk.3/4, Mk.5/7, Aces II, Zvezda K.36 seats, sold for £9 a pop in a nice little sachet?

That's nothing to do with massive tooling. 

 

Now, if Airscale can do what Reheat did 20 years previously, maybe I could do what Model Technologies did twenty years but add microfabric? Feasibility study anyone?

 

Tony 

 

 

 

 

.

Edited November 20, 2019 by Tony T
erasing peculiar anomaly

[ringleheim]

10 hours ago, Radub said:

 

For me, the more amazing thing is "17 new kits a year". Designing kits, especially in the pre-CAD era of the seventies, was some task. 

LSPs are still being planned and will continue to be released. The difference from "past times" is that models of today are more complex and made to higher standards, which take longer to produce. From idea to shelf a LSP model may take up to 5 years. Trust me, there are models in the pipeline. 

it is true that BanDai sells a lot of scifi stuff, but they are not stealing the "regular model" market. The two markets do not overlap. Think "vegans vs meat-eaters" :-) 

Radu

It certainly overlaps with me and a heck of a lot more modelers than you might think.

 

Probably not with most of the folks who hang out here, but this forum is a little unusual in many ways.

 

 

[Radub]

5 minutes ago, ringleheim said:

It certainly overlaps with me and a heck of a lot more modelers than you might think.

 

 

Not in my experience. I know a few guys both in Europe and Japan who build the kind of stuff BanDai is really famous for and sells lots of (Gundam, Macross, etc) and they have zero interest in our kind of models. You are probably thinking of Star Wars models by BanDai, and you are right to say that there is overlap, but Star Wars is a recent development for BanDai and it is not their "bread and butter". BanDai has a limited effect on LSP. 

Radu 

[cbk57]

My point is that Bandai gundam kits are more representative of the market now as it really exists than 1/32 LSP.  Unfortunately we are the outlier in the market and we are a smaller market segment than we would like to think we are.  We are very fortunate to have manufacturers like Zoukei Mura, HKM and WNW that are consistently releasing plastic models in 1/32 scale.  Then we have some others that release a good one here and there.  

 

What is a surprise is that Tamiya has never touched on doing Gundam or Sci-Fi kits.  Hasegawa has consistently had a toe in those waters.  

Edited November 20, 2019 by cbk57

[Radub]

19 minutes ago, cbk57 said:

My point is that Bandai gundam kits are more representative of the market now as it really exists than 1/32 LSP.  Unfortunately we are the outlier in the market and we are a smaller market segment than we would like to think we are.  We are very fortunate to have manufacturers like Zoukei Mura, HKM and WNW that are consistently releasing plastic models in 1/32 scale.  Then we have some others that release a good one here and there.  

 

What is a surprise is that Tamiya has never touched on doing Gundam or Sci-Fi kits.  Hasegawa has consistently had a toe in those waters.  

 

Incidentally, Zoukei Mura is part of Volks, which is quite well-known in Japan for their scifi models and models of "characters" from anime and manga. 

Radu 

[BloorwestSiR]

One thing I've always been curious about is what if Bandai were to produce an LSP kit? Their mould technology is fairly impressive from the kits of theirs that I have in the stash. This from both a detail stand point as well as the moulding process itself.  Some have parts that are moulded in more than one colour. I have one kit where there are moving pistons inside a cylinder but they're one piece. 

 

They have primarily stuck to sci-fi and mecha kits with the very occasional real world subject popping up (last one I recall were some 1/43 car kits) in recent times.

 

Tamiyablog has several interesting interviews with folks from Tamiya about the hobby. They're a bit of a long read, the translation can be a bit off at times and  the articles don't always discuss scale models so you  sometimes need to skip around a bit. 

 

https://tamiyablog.com/2019/06/creator-of-mini-4wd-the-future-of-plastic-models-interview-with-the-president-of-tamiya/

 

https://tamiyablog.com/2019/06/mr-shunsaku-tamiya-i-will-convey-the-pleasure-of-making-plastic-models-to-children/

 

Carl