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Jennings Heilig

Wuhan coronavirus - everybody just calm down!

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I will feel much better if we get through the next few weeks and see the numbers coming down as far as reported illness, deaths and spread.  My dad and stepmother were headed for a cruise Saturday but are looking into rebooking.  If he were to get sick he is not healthy enough to handle it, also would be problematic for him to be locked in a room on a cruise ship if the disease did show up shipboard.  At the same time on a more humorous note, if he and my stepmother were locked in the same 8x8 room for two weeks, i am fairly certain no more than one would come out alive.:D.  I know I would kill him myself if I were locked in the same room with him for two weeks.

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On 3 February 2020 at 4:03 AM, BiggTim said:

What does this have to do with model building? 

 

Never mind

 

Tony 

Edited by Tony T
to edit

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On 2/2/2020 at 4:30 PM, Jennings Heilig said:


Get your flu shot, wash your hands frequently (or use hand sanitizer), and drive defensively.  And don't listen to the media.


Well Jennings, I’d say that your sage advice is not being followed.   At this point, I’m getting a bit more worried about the medical aspects of this and a lot more worried about the economic aspects.  We’re only seeing the initial stages of what could be an utterly devastating economic chain reaction.   Wait until the US starts suffering from widespread outbreaks (which isn’t a matter of if, it’s only a matter of when). 
 

I already see signs that companies are starting to prepare for this in the usual ways - hiring / wage freezes, throttling back on capital spending, etc.  The next step after that will involve the RIF’s.   
 

At least we can take comfort in the fact that our leader has made this his number one priority and has put the “A-team” on it.  

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On 2/2/2020 at 11:27 PM, Jennings Heilig said:

Major headline on CNN last week: "Coronavirus carriers may be contagious for days before symptoms appear!"

 

Um, yeah, so exactly like every single other virus known to science then?

Oo, facts? That's not how the interweb works, is it!!? 

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Let's keep it polite please. This has the potential to be a serious global epidemic. That being said, knocking each other about, and politics will not work here. Everyone has to do what they feel is best to handle any potential...situation.

I am doing certain things, based on what I think;  others will do differently. Do what is right for you.

Let's just say my WNW kits are close...

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Not personally worried (though I know people who are) but the worst case scenario for this thing is scary. It’s not just economic. Our hospital systems will not cope. But let’s be optimistic and hope we are better prepared than 1919. 
 

Shizuoka cancellation is a bummer but better safe than sorry. Wash your hands and cover your mouth when you cough...and fingers crossed...

Edited by Pup7309

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What is lacking is a sense of balance.

Seasonal flu kills far more people each year but that's not news apparently.

In the UK in 2008/9 13,000 people died from seasonal flu.

The average is at least 600 deaths annually.

In 2017/18 a combination of flu and lower than average temperatures (Lumped together as "Winter deaths") killed over 50,000 people

The WHO estimates that globally seasonal flu kills over 500,000 people.

According to US health figures, since October last year 20,000 people have died from seasonal flu in the US so far.

In the UK there have been 16 confirmed cases of Corona virus so far.

Of those 9 have recovered and gone home.

Kind of puts things in perspective doesn't it?

But then , the media aren't happy unless there's some kind of "crisis" to scare us all with.

 

 

Edited by PhilB

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8 minutes ago, PhilB said:

What is lacking is a sense of balance.

Seasonal flu kills far more people each year but that's not news apparently.

In the UK in 2008/9 13,000 people died from seasonal flu.

The average is at least 600 deaths annually.

In 2017/18 a combination of flu and lower than average temperatures (Lumped together as "Winter deaths") killed over 50,000 people

The WHO estimates that globally seasonal flu kills over 500,000 people.

According to US health figures, since October last year 20,000 people have died from seasonal flu in the US so far.

In the UK there have been 16 confirmed cases of Corona virus so far.

Of those 9 have recovered and gone home.

Kind of puts things in perspective doesn't it?

But then , the media aren't happy unless there's some kind of "crisis" to scare us all with.

 

 


The issue with those numbers, is it's not really making it obvious just how many people catch common flu, because of how globally widespread it is, so in my opinion they're not directly comparable in any way. The CDC estimate's something like 16,000 to 41,000 deaths from ~29,000,000 - 41,000,000 cases of common, seasonal flu in the 2019-2020 US Flu Season.(source: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm) Pulling in at roughly 0.05% mortality rate with those numbers.

Covid-19 has (last I double checked the numbers, which was a couple days back) something like 2700 deaths of 80,000 confirmed cases, putting it around 3.3% mortality rate.
If they cannot contain Covid-19 early and starve it out, and it gets to anything like those numbers (it's been confirmed it's more infectious than common flu, and transfers VERY easily, so it's not a far stretch to imagine it) if 29,000,000 - 41,000,000 people caught it.. that's 957,000 - 1,353,000 deaths... 

Kind of puts things in perspective, doesn't it?

I'm not sure how or why people are saying seasonal flu is more dangerous.. it's more common sure, but more dangerousNot even close, Covid-19 at this point appears to be orders of magnitude more dangerous? It also appears to leave permanent, life-long lung damage, even if you recover...

I think I'd rather just not catch it thanks! :( The media do love a headline, and love to spread misinformation and smoke screens to hide wider issues, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't be taking this very seriously.

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15 minutes ago, Subodai said:

Kind of puts things in perspective, doesn't it?
I'm not sure how or why people are saying seasonal flu is more dangerous.. it's more common sure, but more dangerousNot even close, Covid-19 at this point appears to be orders of magnitude more dangerous? It also appears to leave permanent, life-long lung damage, even if you recover...
I think I'd rather just not catch it thanks! :( The media do love a headline, and love to spread misinformation and smoke screens to hide wider issues, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't be taking this very seriously.

Not saying that it shouldn't be taken seriously.

Like seasonal flu should be but isn't.

Where did the permanent damage thing come from?

Not heard that it's more infectious either as haven't heard that.

Seasonal flu is currently more dangerous because it kills more people.

Simple maths.

I'll repeat this is a serious situation but not a cause for panic.

 

 

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9 minutes ago, PhilB said:

Where did the permanent damage thing come from?

Seasonal flu is currently more dangerous because it kills more people.

Simple maths.


The body appears to attack it so much it damages the lungs permanently.
It kills more people by volume and purely by how prevalent it is, but not by percentage.  

Edited by Subodai

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